Catan Dice Probability Comparison (2d6 Odds)
What Catan roll is best? Compare all 11 two dice odds, from 7 at 16.67 percent to 2 at 2.78 percent. Exact 36 pair math with robber notes. All 11 totals ranked.
Visual comparison
All values
Click any row to load it as Entry A.
| Name | Value | Context | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roll 2 2.78 percent. 1 of 36 pairs. | 2.78 percent | 1 plus 1, one pair | Catan rules: 2d6 production roll; probability 1 pair of 36 equals 2.78 percent |
| Roll 3 5.56 percent. 2 of 36 pairs. | 5.56 percent | 1-2 and 2-1, two pairs | Catan rules: 2d6 production roll; probability 2 pairs of 36 equals 5.56 percent |
| Roll 4 8.33 percent. 3 of 36 pairs. | 8.33 percent | Three pairs | Catan rules: 2d6 production roll; probability 3 pairs of 36 equals 8.33 percent |
| Roll 5 11.11 percent. 4 of 36 pairs. | 11.11 percent | Four pairs | Catan rules: 2d6 production roll; probability 4 pairs of 36 equals 11.11 percent |
| Roll 6 13.89 percent. 5 of 36 pairs. | 13.89 percent | Five pairs | Catan rules: 2d6 production roll; probability 5 pairs of 36 equals 13.89 percent |
| Roll 7 16.67 percent. Top row here. 6 of 36. | 16.67 percent | Six pairs, robber number | Catan rules: 2d6 production roll and robber on 7; probability 6 pairs of 36 equals 16.67 percent |
| Roll 8 13.89 percent. Matches roll 6. | 13.89 percent | Five pairs | Catan rules: 2d6 production roll; probability 5 pairs of 36 equals 13.89 percent |
| Roll 9 11.11 percent. Matches roll 5. | 11.11 percent | Four pairs | Catan rules: 2d6 production roll; probability 4 pairs of 36 equals 11.11 percent |
| Roll 10 8.33 percent. Matches roll 4. | 8.33 percent | Three pairs | Catan rules: 2d6 production roll; probability 3 pairs of 36 equals 8.33 percent |
| Roll 11 5.56 percent. Matches roll 3. | 5.56 percent | Two pairs | Catan rules: 2d6 production roll; probability 2 pairs of 36 equals 5.56 percent |
| Roll 12 2.78 percent. Matches roll 2. | 2.78 percent | 6 plus 6, one pair | Catan rules: 2d6 production roll; probability 1 pair of 36 equals 2.78 percent |
About this converter
Two dice make 36 equal pairs with fixed odds. Seven leads at 16.67 percent with 6 of 36 pairs. Six and eight follow at 13.89 with 5 pairs each. Five and nine sit at 11.11 with 4 pairs. Four and ten sit at 8.33 with 3 pairs. Three and eleven sit at 5.56 with 2 pairs. Two and twelve close at 2.78 with 1 pair each. One seven matches six twos. Every figure here is exact pairs over 36 with the decimal noted.
How to use it
Pick two totals and a unit in the top row. The three boxes below stay linked. Change any box and the other two update. Try 1 seven against 1 two to see the 16.67 versus 2.78 gap. All rows are two six sided dice math.
Values are exact combinatorics, not samples: pairs divided by 36 times 100. Loaded or digital dice stay out because no fixed table applies. The robber moves on seven, which is also the most likely total. Cities and Knights event dice stay out because they use a different die. Settlements on 6 and 8 intersections collect most over time, which drives opening placement. Two player variants stay out because they change turn order, not odds.
FAQ
What is the most common roll?
Seven at 16.67 percent with 6 of 36 pairs. It also moves the robber.
What is the rarest roll?
2.78 percent each with 1 of 36 pairs: 1 plus 1 for two, 6 plus 6 for twelve.
Are the odds symmetric?
Yes. Mirror totals share pairs: 6 with 8, 5 with 9, 4 with 10, 3 with 11 and 2 with 12.
Do expansions change the odds?
No. Cities and Knights adds a red event die with its own table, so only 2d6 base rows appear here.
Sources
- Catan base game rules (2d6 production roll, number tokens 2-12, robber activates on 7)
- Probability math: 36 ordered pairs of 2d6 (1 pair for 2 and 12 through 6 pairs for 7, divided by 36)
- Catan Studio FAQ (robber on 7, Cities and Knights event die as separate system)
Last verified: 2026-10-02 · 11 entries
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